Oberseminar Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie
Joint research seminar of LMU and TUM in Probability Theory
Students and guests welcome.
Organizers:
Noam
Berger (TUM),
Nina
Gantert
(TUM),
Konstantinos Panagiotou (LMU),
Markus
Heydenreich (LMU),
Sabine
Jansen (LMU),
Franz Merkl
(LMU),
Silke
Rolles (TUM)
Upcoming talks:
| Mon 22 Jun 2026, 16:30: Dylan Chaussoy Concentration of cover times for successive killed walks |
| The cover time of a Markov chain is the first time at which every state has been visited at least once. In this talk, we consider random walks that jump to stationarity every L steps; or at rate 1/L, where L is a given parameter that may diverge. We will show that the order of the expected cover time is the same in both setups and study when the cover time is concentrated. Aldous proved, in 1991, that for reversible Markov chains, the cover time is concentrated around its expectation if and only if the maximal expected hitting time is of strictly smaller order than the maximal expected cover time. We will give a similar concentration criterion and show that the concentration of the cover time is equivalent in both setups under certain conditions. Joint work with Omer Angel, Jonathan Hermon and Pietro Lavino. |
| Theresienstr. 39, München. Room B 252 |
| Mon 29 Jun 2026, 16:30: Johannes Bäumler Estimating the history of a random recursive tree |
| We estimate the arrival time of vertices in a uniform random recursive tree from its unlabeled structure. Using centrality-based rankings, we derive tail bounds for the relative estimation error that are uniform in the vertex and the tree size. For the ranking induced by Jordan centrality, the probability that the estimate exceeds the true arrival time by a factor $S$ decays on the order of $1/S$, while the probability that it is smaller than the true arrival time by a factor $1/S$ decays exponentially in $S$. We introduce a refined centrality measure whose overestimation probability decays on the order of $(\log S)/S^{2}$, at the cost of a heavier lower tail of order $1/S^{2}$. These results identify a tradeoff between upper- and lower-tail performance in arrival-time estimation. Joint work with Simon Briend and Joost Jorritsma |
| Parkring 11, Garching-Hochbrück. Room BC1 2.01.10 (8101.02.110) |
| Mon 13 Jul 2026, 16:30: Olaf Zühlke The offended voter model |
| TBA |
| Parkring 11, Garching-Hochbrück. Room BC1 2.01.10 (8101.02.110) |