Department Mathematik
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Inhaltsbereich

 

                  Colloquium Mathematical Epidemiology
                              Modelling and Inference

                                            Wednesday, 20 July 2022


This is a research colloquium about mathematical epidemiology. We aim to discuss epidemiological questions both from a mathematical as well as from a statistical point of view. A central theme is the exchange of ideas between scientists from different background.

Speakers:
Registration: Please register by sending an email to Annika Steibel.

Time:  The program starts at 2PM c.t.


Online-Meeting:  We are using zoom, the access-code will be emailed to registered participants in due time.

Schedule

Time        
Speaker
 Title
14:15
 Frank Ball Epidemics with two levels of mixing
15:15
 Martin Eichner Corona pandemic: Thoughts on the future based on epidemiogical modelling

15:35		 Sabine Hoffmann A Bayesian hierarchical approach to account for reporting uncertainty, variants of concern and vaccination coverage when estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the spread of infectious diseases
16:15
 Helmut Küchenhoff Nowcasting hospital admissions in Germany.
covid19nowcasthub.de: A joint project of several research groups

Abstracts:

Frank Ball: Epidemics with two levels of mixing
In this talk I will describe a general model for stochastic SIR (susceptible - infected - recovered) epidemics in a closed population, in which during their infectious period a typical infective makes both local and global contacts. Each local contact of a given infective is with an individual chosen according to a contact distribution "centred" on that infective and each global contact is with an individual chosen independently and uniformly from the whole population. The threshold behaviour of the model is determined, as is the asymptotic final outcome in the event of an epidemic taking off.
The theory is specialised to (i) the households model, in which the population is partitioned into households and local contacts are chosen uniformly within an infective's household; (ii) the overlapping groups model, in which the population is partitioned in several ways with local uniform mixing within the elements of the partition; (iii) the great circle model, in which individuals are equally spaced on a circle and local contacts are nearest-neighbour; and (iv) a network model with casual contacts. The talk ends with a brief discussion of vaccination strategies in the households model.



Organisers: