#Schafbestand England & Wales, 1867-1939
# mit 5, 9, 13 Punkte Gleitende Durchschnitte

Sheep<- read.table("Hsheep.dat",header=T)
attach(Sheep)

Y<- NShp/100 
mean(Y); sqrt(var(Y))
postscript(file="NShp.ps",height=16,width=8,horizontal=F)
par(mfrow=c(2,1))

plot(Year,Y,type="l",lty=1,xlim=c(1860,1940),ylim=c(13,24),
   xlab="Jahr",ylab="Anzahl Schafe in Millionen",cex=0.90)
title(main="Schafbestand England & Wales, 1867-1939",cex=0.9)
points(Year,Y,pch=4,cex=0.6)
abline(h=c(14,16,18,20,22),lty=2)

plot(Year,Y,type="l",lty=1,xlim=c(1860,1940),ylim=c(13,24),
  xlab="Jahr",ylab="Anzahl Schafe in Millionen",cex=0.9)
abline(h=c(14,16,18,20,22),lty=2)
#title(main="Schafbestand England & Wales, 1867-1939",cex=0.9)

segments(1905,22.5,1915,22.5,lty=1)
points(c(1905,1910,1915),c(22.5,22.5,22.5),pch=4,cex=0.6)
segments(1905,23.2,1915,23.2,lty=2)
segments(1905,23.9,1915,23.9,lty=3)

text(1930,22.5,"Zeitreihe Y",cex=0.8)
text(1930,23.2,"5 Punkte Ausgleich",cex=0.8)
text(1930,23.9,"13 Punkte Ausgleich",cex=0.8)

points(Year,Y,pch=4,cex=0.6)

#5,9,13 Punkte Ausgleich
c5<- c(-3,12,17,12,-3); Y5<- 1:69; Z5<- 1:69 
c9<- c(-21,14,39,54,59,54,39,14,-21); Y9<- 1:65; Z9<- 1:65
c13<- c(-11,0,9,16,21,24,25,24,21,16,9,0,-11); Y13<- 1:61; Z13<- 1:61

for (i in 3:71)  {Y5[i-2]<- 0  
{for (j in 1:5)   Y5[i-2]<- Y5[i-2]+c5[j]*Y[i-3+j]/35 }}

lines(Year[3:71],Y5,lty=2)
   
for (i in 5:69) 
{Y9[i-4]<- 0
{for (j in 1:9) 
Y9[i-4]<- Y9[i-4]+c9[j]*Y[i-5+j]/231}}

#lines(Year[5:69],Y9,lty=2)

for (i in 7:67) 
{Y13[i-6]<- 0
{for (j in 1:13) 
Y13[i-6]<- Y13[i-6]+c13[j]*Y[i-7+j]/143 }}

lines(Year[7:67],Y13,lty=3)

detach(Sheep)
dev.off()

rm(Y,Sheep)
rm(Y5,Y9,Y13,c5,c9,c13)
rm(Z5,Z9,Z13)